Austin Housing Forecast for 2011


The much anticipated Austin housing forecast for 2011 is predicting a slow improvement through the first two quarters according to The Economist. The uptick will likely begin in the third quarter and pick up momentum in the fourth, positioning the opening months of 2012 to be prime for listing a property.

Eldon Rue, Director of the Austin Market for Metrostudy, the nation’s leading provider of primary and secondary housing market information stated, “For 2011, Metrostudy does expect the local market to show some improvement over last year, resulting in slightly more home starts in the area. However, we do not anticipate a surge in new home production until 2012 when increased demand begins to result in increasing home prices, setting the stage for builders to start more new homes.”

Re-sales always compete with new development properties and right now, builders are buying land although not building on it. So, if they are picking up tracts and waiting for better times, and the normal period for construction to actually begin is anywhere from 24 to 36 months, most remaining new homes will have moved by January 2012 and the dominant inventory will shift to re-sales

Of course, inventory doesn't do anyone any good without buyers and Austin is in a unique position in that regard. Our city government is awarding tax incentives to encourage the creation of new jobs, and we benefit from a very business-minded mayor and city council.

The U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics placed Austin number one on the list of 50 best-performing metro areas in July 2010 with year-over-year job growth at 2.5 percent. Even as the recession was lingering across the nation, our local economy picked up 18,600 jobs.

Now, granted, not all of those jobs were going to "imports" or new residents, but even if they weren't, each job created locally puts purchasing power back in the hands of an Austinite who may be in the market for a home in the months to come. The "imports" themselves may be renters initially, but as they put down community roots, they rapidly make the transition to potential buyers.

We also have an edge in that a great deal of our local economy is technology-driven -- about 13.2 percent over the national 4.1 percent. Those jobs pay about twice the local average in wages -- again, that translates to purchasing power. We're seeing a lot of emerging new sectors like green energy (the Pflugerville solar farm with its 400,000 panels will be the largest in the nation) and enterprises that will come in to support or augment the presence of the F1 track.

Austin and the Central Texas economy weathered the recession well. We are seeing good job growth and a steady return of the real estate market. As a homeowner, however, if you can wait out 2011, and list your property early in 2012, you should benefit from a much more active real estate climate, with stronger pricing and more purchasing power in the hands of potential buyers.

 

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